Chicagoland mortgage outlook

The Chicagoland mortgage rate outlook this spring is creating a sense of urgency on the part of prospective home purchasers. With interest rates having edged up slightly and home prices rising continuously, many borrowers are making a beeline to apply for home loans. Their rationale is the sooner they act, the more they potentially will save – on interest rate charges and home price increases.

Interestingly, home purchasers are electing to take out adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) in unusually high numbers in hopes they can handle the Chicagoland mortgage rate outlook of potentially higher rates and save money on their mortgage payments in the first few years.

 The latest Chicagoland mortgage rate outlook has caused some prospective home buyers and borrowers to apply for home loans before rates go even higher.

Mortgage activity has been on the rise in recent weeks, having increased nearly 3.5% from one week to the next, based on the most recent report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA.) Despite the week over week increase, total mortgage volume is roughly 18% lower than it was during the same period in 2016. Experts say the lower volume has more to do with the decrease in the number of refinance applications than it does with the Chicagoland mortgage rate outlook. While most borrowers refinanced a year ago when interest rates were at or near record lows, there is still some refinance activity in the mortgage marketplace. The volume of refinance loans is down 34% so far this year, but mortgage lenders have seen an increase of more than 5% in recent weeks – based on consumer fears that the Chicagoland mortgage rate outlook might include higher interest rates moving forward.

Some analysts attribute the rush to refinance to recent remarks made by key Federal Reserve officials indicating what wound up being another interest rate increase in March. In addition, other economic factors came into play such as the recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP,) manufacturing results and inflation projections. While mortgage interest rates really are not directly tied to federal funds rates – upward or downward – a rate increase by the Federal Reserve could still make mortgage interest rates increase, only time will tell on this for sure. Fed funds rates are generally more short-term in nature, while mortgage rates are longer term, of course.

How will the Chicagoland mortgage rate outlook impact the usually brisk spring real estate sales season? While the true impact remains to be seen, economists say demand on the part of home buyers is still high. The problem, they contend – which is of greater concern than the prospect of higher interest rates – is affordable homes are still in short supply. The inventory shortages that occurred during much of 2016 have carried over into 2017, and don’t appear to be improving anytime soon. Since a good portion of the housing demand is on the part of millennials and first-time buyers, the inventory shortage is of major concern.

As mentioned above, one of the results of the recent Chicagoland mortgage rate outlook is more buyers are opting for adjustable rate mortgage solutions in an effort to save money since the ARMs offer lower interest rates for a certain time period. Statistics reported by the MBA showed that the ARM share of recent mortgage lending applications was the highest since 2014. The results simply highlight the concern borrowers have for higher interest rates, and in spite of the indications, home demand remains high going into the spring. In addition to the ARM share of applications reaching a three-year high, the average loan size for applications to purchase homes reached a high of $313,000. This is the result of two different factors. First-time buyers tend to impact the higher mortgage amounts less than buyers in the market who are moving up and buying bigger, newer and more expensive homes.

The Chicagoland mortgage rate outlook may have a definite impact on the spring market, however, all early indications are that due to high demand and the overall impression that interest rates – despite their slight upward tick in recent months – are still relatively low. Many borrowers remember when interest rates were in the 8%-9% range for a number of years. With that in mind, rates roughly 50% as high are veritable bargains today – in spite of the higher home prices that exist in today’s real estate market.

More first-time borrowers are going to faced with the dilemma of continuing to pay higher rents versus putting their monthly payments into paying a mortgage and building equity in a home of their own. The home participation or home ownership rate reached an all-time low in 2016, but the trend seems to be one of slight improvement during 2017. Time, as usual, will tell as first-timers decide what to do and when to do it. Housing inventory, as already cited, will determine a great deal as the market needs starter homes and more affordably priced houses to meet the demands of some of the first-time home buyers. In addition, there needs to be a larger supply of “move-up” homes for that segment of the buying public that’s ready to expand into a larger home, a better neighborhood or a newer home.

You can find more articles pertaining to the Chicagoland mortgage rate outlook in the "Chicagoland Mortgage Info" section of articles just below Chicagoland Real Estate Categories in the column to your right. Remember to also check us out by finding us on Facebook and following us on Twitter..

The Chicagoland mortgage forecast – at least for the near future – is that home loans will continue to be easier to obtain than anytime in the last ten years. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) recently published a report showing data that seems to suggest mortgage lenders have relaxed many of their lending regulations and standards for every type of loan – including FHA and USDA home loans – both backed by the U.S. government.

Between 2008 and 2016, it was estimated credit availability to take out mortgages tightened by close to 90%, according to an MBA report. However, today’s Chicagoland mortgage forecast is brighter than before, and more people are qualifying for loans than in the last decade. Officials say even those borrowers who may have been turned down for a mortgage loan a year or more ago are likely to be granted financing in today’s lending environment.

 The Chicagoland mortgage forecast is for mortgages to become easier to obtain than in the last 10 years.

Let’s Look at the Numbers The MBA publishes its Mortgage Availability Index (MCAI) every month in an effort to show the current mortgage lending market as a single number. The MBA obtains data from over 95 lenders nationwide, looking at loan-to-value ratios, FICO credit scores and lending limits as a measure of how much or little flexibility there are in loan guidelines.

The most recent report shows the MCAI at a fairly high 177.1 – a huge increase from what many term its benchmark index of March 2012 of 100. What this means is that mortgages are almost twice as easy to obtain as they were just five short years ago.

The Chicagoland mortgage forecast is for relaxed lending standards to not only continue to be a part of a mortgage lender’s loan guidelines, but they’re making an impact in other areas as well. Mortgage software company Ellie Mae just released a report showing mortgage lenders approve 77% of applicants – an increase of 6% in roughly 18 months. In addition, the MCAI rose 1.1% in only one month. The report also showed that lenders have relaxed lending requirements for loans above the national conforming loan maximum of $424,100.

Availability, as a result, has increased for nearly every type of loan offered:

  • Government mortgage availability rose 0.2% from the prior month
  • Conventional mortgage loan availability was up 2.3% from the previous month
  • Jumbo mortgage availability increased 4.7% from the prior month

Government mortgages referenced above include the three major lending programs – the FHA loan, the VA loan and the USDA mortgage.

USDA Loans Increase Government Mortgage Availability

First-time home buyers really like the little-known USDA home loan program. USDA loans require no down payment, one of only two loan products with that feature – the other being the VA loan – which is available to current or previous members of the Armed Forces. USDA loans are also known as Rural Housing Loans and eligibility requirements are based on the home’s location. Primarily, neighborhoods throughout the U.S. that are in less densely populated areas are the easiest in which to qualify. Before you assume these programs are available only to homes located “in the boonies,” consider this – the eligibility maps are 17 years old. In many areas, was characterized as “rural” in 2000 could be part of suburbia today. The Chicagoland mortgage forecast will continue to be impacted by USDA loans.

The Housing Market Remains Safe

Mention the increased availability of mortgage credit and some people immediately equate that with concern for another housing market crash. In their minds, the logic is easy mortgage availability was responsible for the housing crisis back in 2008 and 2009 – so, if credit becomes easy to obtain we are likely to repeat history. However, here’s something that may calm your fears. Remember the Mortgage Banker’s Association (MBA) MCAI index report discussed earlier? The MBA estimates it reached close to 900 during the bubble in late 2006. Again, the index today is just 177.1. Industry experts say the Chicagoland mortgage forecast is for credit availability to remain strong – and safe – because the housing market is a different animal than it was over a decade ago. Lenders are less likely to be as lax as they were in the years leading up to the housing crisis.

Lastly, mortgage lenders today are more cognizant that making good, sound mortgage loans is the foundation of the housing industry. There are more safeguards in place to prevent history from repeating itself than ever before – primarily as a result of the housing crash. Borrowers today need to have good credit – not excellent, blemish-free credit reports – but a history of paying their monthly obligations on time, over time. In addition, they need sufficient income to qualify for the monthly payments. Of course, they need to have a sufficient down payment to qualify for most mortgage loans, though not all.

Simply put, we remain optimistic with the Chicagoland mortgage forecast for 2017 and beyond. Here’s hoping the housing market will continue to recover to its full capacity.

You can find more articles pertaining to the Chicagoland mortgage forecast in the "Chicagoland Mortgage Info" section of articles just below Chicagoland Real Estate Categories in the column to your right. Remember to also check us out by finding us on Facebook and following us on Twitter.